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A Morose Mood as Crime Swells...and Real Estate Goes Begging |
Edited by Harry Maurer - By Dave Lindorff in Macau
Macau, a Portuguese
enclave on the other side of the mouth of Guangdong's Pearl River from Hong Kong, has always
been the British territory's sleepy sister--its economy fueled by tourism and casino gambling. Both
Hong Kong and Macau are about to be returned to Chinese sovereignty--Hong Kong in less than
two months, and Macau in just over two years--but as these twin deadlines approach, the differences
between the two are striking. While there are major political conflicts in Hong Kong, the
economy is booming, the property market is strong, violent crime is in decline, and about half the
populace tell pollsters they are confident about the future.
In Macau, there's a property crash, rising
crime by gangs known as triads, and lots of anxiety about the 1999 hand-over. This despite the fact
that Portugal, unlike Britain, granted its colonial subjects full citizenship, meaning any Macanese
can migrate to any country in the European Community. Not so long ago, Macau wasn't gloomy at
all. The quaint city of 440,000 has long been a tourist's delight, with its famous cuisine, brightly
painted Iberian architecture, and relaxed pace. But then came the crime wave. It began six months
ago and has so far killed 14 people. Macau development officials don't want to talk about it: ''That's a
touchy subject I'm not sure we can address,'' says one with a laugh.
But Tourism Dept. statistics tell a worrying story. While overall tourism increased in 1996 by 5%, the
December figure, which came
after the upswing in triad violence began to make the news, was down 5% from a year earlier. The
falloff in visitors from Hong Kong, which accounts for over half of Macau's tourism business, has
been even more pronounced: 21% over the same period.
According to the police, the growing violence in Macau can be traced to both a slowdown in the
casino business and, ironically, police success in cracking down on the triads. ''The cake is getting
smaller, so the gangs are having to fight to keep their piece as large as before,'' says one security
official. Inside the gaming houses, the slackening sure isn't noticeable. The tables are crowded and
the slots busy at the downmarket Casino Lisboa, just a block from the latest shooting, while
prostitutes in tight miniskirts whisper propositions.
The only indication of something amiss is the
armed Macau cops outside the entrance to the building, eyeing everyone who comes or departs. For
rollers high and low, worries about Macau's future--or present--seem far off. Gentlemen, place your
bets. In 1985, when China inked the deal with Portugal to assume sovereignty in 1999, some
Hong Kong developers, led by Hopewell Holdings Ltd. and Shun Tak Holdings Ltd., embarked on a
building boom. They assumed that closer links to the fast-growing city of Zhuhai across the border
would mean rapid expansion.
But the boom may have been built on a mirage. Hopewell, for
example, is having trouble with its largest single property project, a 1 million-square-foot joint venture
with Shun Tak called Nova Taipa Gardens. A Hopewell spokesperson says phase one--13 of 34
planned high-rise residential blocks--is complete, but only eight of the blocks are fully sold. The
finished project will include residential units, a convention center, and a hotel, but analysts express
skepticism about its completion date and profitability.
And as for the market in general, Michael
Green of Salomon Brothers in Hong Kong says the problem of overbuilding won't go away for a good
long time: ''I don't know of a bigger oversupply of property anywhere in the world.'' So Macau may
have to get used to being in a funk.
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